Bless their hearts, they mean well:
In an updated outlook, the Colorado State University forecasters led by pioneer researcher William Gray said the June. 1-November 30 season will produce 17 tropical storms. Of the nine hurricanes forecast, five will be major ones of Category 3 or higher with winds over 110 mph (177 kph).
If the prediction proves true, 2007 could mark a return to the destructive seasons of 2004, when four strong hurricanes hit Florida, and 2005, the year of Katrina, after a mild 2006 when only 10 storms formed.
Here’s the actual prediction from the site the AP is reporting:
We estimate that 2007 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 11 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average.
Scary stuff, eh? Then again, last year’s predictions looked much the same.
We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average.
(My emphasis throughout.) The only real difference (to this Gulf Coast layman’s eye) is in the probability of a major hurricane landfall, which more than doubles this year over last.
Sigh…. another hurricane season, another chance to throw darts at the weather maps. If you’re really concerned, put Eric Berger’s SciGuy blog back into your bookmarks. He’s almost always good for a dose of sanity.
Meanwhile, don’t panic — and don’t forget to bring your towel…
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Added: Poliblog is taking this with an entire shaker of salt.