There are rumors floating again that Osama bin Laden may be dead:
PARIS, France (CNN) — Osama bin Laden has a water-borne illness, a Saudi intelligence source told CNN on Saturday, a report that conflicts with an article in a French newspaper saying that the al Qaeda leader is dead.
The Saudi intelligence source told CNN’s Nic Robertson that there have been credible reports for the past several weeks that bin Laden is ill, but there has been no word of his death.
The questions came in response to the publication of a report in the French regional newspaper L’Est Republicain on Saturday.
The article cited a confidential French foreign intelligence document dated September 21 in which a source said the Saudis had received confirmation that bin Laden died of typhoid in Pakistan on August 23.
Seems to me we’ve been down this road a time or two already. There are a couple of differences to this latest rumor, though: they have specific dates (above), and they have named an illness (below). From Reuters:
“The information gathered by the Saudis indicates that the head of al Qaeda was a victim while he was in Pakistan on August 23, 2006, of a very serious case of typhoid which led to a partial paralysis of his internal organs.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. says they have no confirmation, but analysts also say there’s been no internet chatter about OBL having died… and that they’d expect that (CNN):
CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen said he is skeptical of the suggestion that bin Laden might be dead, saying it was not something the Islamist Web sites would keep quiet about.
Actually, Polimom’s not at all sure that we’d hear about it if he died due to an illness of some kind, and here’s why I think this:
There are people in the Middle East (and elsewhere) who support Osama bin Laden but are less supportive of the actions of al Qaeda in recent years — particularly in Iraq. If bin Laden passes away due to illness, al Qaeda as an organization may lose these OBL-only supporters.
On the other hand, if the United States were to kill Osama bin Laden, the result would be the worst possible scenario for the U.S., because he would then become a martyr — a symbol to all Islamic extremists.
Al Qaeda, therefore, has a lot to gain from hiding OBL’s death by natural causes, or even a life-threatening illness. I’m not at all surprised nobody would be talking about it.
Polimom is hoping that this time the rumors are true… and that we can confirm it. If we can’t, the man will eventually assume legendary proportions — an outcome nearly as bad as possible martyrdom.
Fingers crossed…
To read more about the latest OBL rumor, Joe Gandelman at TMV has a comprehensive post up, here.