Things are unraveling at a pretty astounding clip, now, with Israel’s invasion of Lebanon today. James Joyner has a good analysis up (here), including an unnerving escalation update.
There are also rumors floating that Israel intends to declare war tonight. From here, I’d say that’s merely putting a comma and period into the sentence already written.
Whatever we thought the situation was in the Middle East — including Iraq and Iran — it’s all about to change.
Update Thursday 7/13: Some links (and a couple thoughts) to share:
The Lebanese bloggers have a window into events as they’re seeing/hearing about them. There are a number of posts up, including one that I found particularly engrosssing.
A Boston Globe editorial writes that Israel is being drawn into a trap of Iran’s making:
Knowing that Iran is behind Hezbollah’s act of war, Israeli leaders — who are openly warning of devastating strikes on Lebanon’s infrastructure — would be well advised to avoid a reflexive military response that lands Israel in an Iranian trap. If the regime in Tehran wants to provoke Israel to bomb Lebanese power plants, roads, and bridges, maybe this kind of military retaliation is not such a good idea.
This, actually, is the aspect that’s bothering Polimom, although I’ve reached different conclusions. Iran is in this up to their necks, but I think they’re expecting the situation to function as a wild card in their negotiations with the US (and others) over their nuclear ambitions.
Iran set this into motion, but for it to be a useful negotiating ploy (i.e.: we’ll shut down Hezballah and Hamas if we can continue our peaceful nuclear plans), it can’t continue very long before spinning totally away from their control… and likely already has.
I think it’s possible (this is a scary thought, actually) that Israel is going into this with an assurance that we (and other allies) will leverage events to join in full-scale war against “terrorism”, and Islamic radicalism. Gloves off, all the way around.
Clearly, I’m feeling a bit paranoid… right? (somebody explain to me why I’m wrong so I can relax…)
I’m not well versed in all the political nuances of the Middle East to comment very intelligently. I will say, however, after reading this article, that the Israeli actions seem more spiteful than strategic. Shutting down the entire Beirut airport by blowing up its runways is meant to stop terrorists? Blockading all naval traffic to Lebanon is meant to stop terrorists? I recognize doublespeak when I hear it.
Lebanon harbors and supports Hezbollah.
Hezbollah attacked Israel.
Israel attacked Lebanon.
Now substitute Afghanistan for Lebanon; Al Queda for Hezbollah; U.S. for Israel .
It’s not exactly that simple, but it is sure tough on the pot and the kettle.
I said something about this on Polimom’s or John’s chron.COMMONS blog weeks ago. Only one nation near Israel has not said they want Israel destroyed. Next step: if the U.N. can’t get Iran to stop nuclear enrichment, Israel will destroy the centrifuge and all related complexes. This will probably start another Arab/Israel war. If it does, don’t be surprised to find out Israel already has tactical nuclear weapons and will use them if it feels necessary.
As I said, this ain’t good news for the pot or the kettle – and not too good for the rest of this kitchen we call home.
As to — Update Thursday 7/13: Some links (and a couple thoughts) to share:
FIrst , thanks for the links. You’re a heck of a surfer.
Polimom, I don’t think you are paranoid one little bit. If Iran and Syria get caught trying the “smoke & mirror” thing with this and are pulled together in a war with Israel — the gloves ARE off .
But I doubt there’ll be much talk about “”“terrorism”, and Islamic radicalism.”” We have a “protect & defend” treaty with Israel as do a number of Western nations. If not for those treaties, Israel and its neighbors would have been at it daily for years.