Polimom's NFL picks – Week 16

Good news! Not only did nobody came back around last week and call me an idiot who could have done just as well with coin-flipping (thanks!), it turns out that my ego is much tougher than I thought… because I’m going to do it again.
Given last week’s 8-8 debacle, I’ll understand if you choose to interpret these as “recommendations best ignored”:
Minnesota (+3.5*) over GREEN BAY**
Kansas City over OAKLAND (+6.5)

New Orleans (+2.5) over NY GIANTS — The Saints looked bad last week, but it seemed to be a matter of focus and timing. I don’t really need an excuse to pick them, but if I did, it would be that they’re unlikely to repeat that mess.
ST. LOUIS over Washington (+2.5)
Chicago over DETROIT (+4.5) — I will NOT be happy if Da Bears decide to play footsie with the opposition again this week and take it down to an OT field goal.
CLEVELAND over Tampa Bay (+3.5)
ATLANTA over Carolina (+6.5)
Tennessee (+4.5) over BUFFALO

Indianapolis over HOUSTON (+8.5) — There’s very little to add here. If you’re a Texans fan, though, you’re probably in desperate need of something to smile about, and so you must — must — visit Nick Anderson’s interactive animation. At the very least, it’ll give you a break from the crying.
New England (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Baltimore (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH

SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona (+3.5)
DENVER over Cincinnati (+3.5) — When in their natural mile-high environment, Denver generally does better than the opposition… but by how many points? It’s likely to be a great game.  (Edit:  you may have noticed that I’ve put myself in a double-bind here.  Denver is the favorite.  If I’ve picked them on the basis of the spread, they have to win by 4…. but I also indicated I thought Cincy would win.  There is no scenario where both of these outcomes can be correct, indicating a pretty clear case of cotton on Polimom’s brain.)
San Diego over SEATTLE (+4.5)
Philadelphia (+6.5) over DALLAS
NY Jets (+2.5) over MIAMI
Gun Toting Liberal has his picks up again also, here.
An interesting sidenote: Compared to GTL, my record is pretty bad. However, he’s not trying to account for point spreads; his are straight picks, i.e.: a win by 1 is still a win, whereas in Polimom’s picks, a win by 1 could be (and very often is) a loss. Putting his picks last week into the point spread framework, he’d have been 6-10 last week instead of 11-5. (Yeah, I know. I’m looking for excuses….) So — in the interests of apples v. apples (and my ego), I’ve italicized who I think will actually win each game above.
* The + sign indicates point spreads. The + is the equivalent of a “spot”, and the underdog effectively starts the game with that number of points. Thus, in the first game, if the final score is Minn 3 – Green Bay 7, I’d lose; the spotted 3.5 points wouldn’t be enough to “cover the spread”.
**Teams in all caps = playing at home