A polar shift?

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  1. I recall someone once saying, when I mentioned that a particular vendor’s position seemed to be changing (for the better), that “sometimes it takes awhile for a ship as large as this one to change direction – but eventually it will come about.”
    I would say this is especially true when you are talking about the ship of state. And, to be honest about it, even small course corrections are an improvement.
    ~EdT.

  2. Polimom,
    It’s difficult to discuss this subject rationally, since so many people do not have a rational position on it. Irrational positions range from there’s nothing happening here, and if there were it wouldn’t matter, to we’re all gonna die!
    Particularly hard to talk to are those with a religious orientation to the whole global warming debate (i. e. it is happening, mankind’s activities are causing it (or at least are a/the main factor), we (i.e. the Western industrialized democracies–namely the US and Europe) can slow/prevent/reverse it if only we do_______ (fill in the blank), and above all, if the data does not support all of these points, then my faith is stronger than your data. When faith is stronger than facts, there can be no discussion.
    As for the specific point you raise, here is a link to an article on NASA’s earth observatory site on the importance of polar (land) ice–i.e. the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

    Where ice sheets extend outward to the ocean, the ice tends to move out over the surrounding water, forming “ice shelves.” There is concern that, with global warming, the water under the ice shelves would be warmer and cause them to break up more readily, forming very large icebergs. If the ice shelves of West Antarctica were to break up, this would release more inland ice in an irreversible process, possibly leading to sea level rises of several meters.
    In addition to increasing the amount of melting, global warming would also be expected to increase the amount of precipitation in the polar regions. There are three reasons for this: 1) warmer air can carry more moisture than colder air; 2) warmer waters would encourage increased evaporation from the ocean; and 3) lessened sea ice would also lead to more evaporation from the ocean, as more ocean area would be exposed directly to the atmosphere. Global warming could therefore be expected initially to increase both melting and snowfall. Depending on which increase dominates, the early result could be either an overall decay or an overall growth of the ice sheets.

    So, depending on whether the increased snowfall or increased melting dominates, the land ice will either grow or shrink over time. Or stay the same. Hmmm . . . what to do . . . .
    However, sea ice, i.e. ice in the Arctic, is a bit different:

    The melting and growth of sea ice, in contrast to land ice, does not affect sea level, because the sea ice is floating on the ocean already and is in equilibrium with it. Sea ice is nonetheless still important in the context of climate change. Sea ice, with its high reflectance and the insulation it provides between the polar atmospheres and oceans, is a key part of the climate system. Furthermore, sea ice responds to changes in the atmosphere and oceans, and hence changes in it could be a clue to broader climate change, such as global warming. However, the record to date is not clear enough to make any definitive conclusions about long-term climate trends based on the sea-ice observations alone. Sea ice varies significantly from season to season and from year to year, and the extent of its natural variability is not yet fully known.

    Hmmm . . . . again, what to do. However, this last excerpt seems to clear up the question you asked. If there is some risk that the Arctic ice is receding (and it has been for several years) and if it continues, then polar bears may indeed be cramped for range. However, the melting of the Arctic ice cap does not impact the disaster scenarios the global warming faithful dwell on. The entire Arctic ice cap could melt with no impact on sea level (though the polar bears would be swimming!)
    Have surface temperatures been increasing gradually for the past 20 years over most of the earth? Yes. Will they continue to increase? We don’t know. Are temperatures in the upper atmosphere also increasing? No. Do the computer weather models that predict an increase in surface temperature also predict an increase in upper atmospheric temperatures? Yes. Can anyone explain the discrepancy? No. Should we then believe the most extreme predictions of these same computer models for surface temperatures in the future?
    Facts or faith . . . .

  3. Why are we even debating this issue? How could anyone be so heartless as to not want to protect something as cute as a polar bear? As a measure of cuteness, polar bear cubs are off the chart! So its an already obvious answer! Protect them!

  4. I don’t think it matters whether global warming is happening or not. If it is and we’re right, then we’ll do what will help slow it down and help our environment, and if it’s not and we’re wrong, we’ll still be doing something to help our environment and at least get it a little cleaner. It’s a win-win. What’s the problem?

  5. This may be the most important and most overlooked story of the decade because when an animal is put on the endangered species list, it means that the gov’t is required to take action to ameliorate the threats to that critter and in this case, the “threat” has been identified as Global warming. What this means in practical terms is that the Federal Gov’t and it’s agencies will begin to review all permit processes and permit awards with an eye toward reducing Global warming; thus for example, the Federal Permits necessary to build a power plant will be subject to new review standards. The examples are endless and we’ll need to keep a close eye on the Federal Register to see how this plays out, but I can imagine that, for example, the Trans Texas Corridor as presently planned will be subjected to renewed scrutiny. If you think about it, darned near anything that needs any type of Federal Permit will be affected, i.e. Offshore drilling, Interstate Highway construction/mainenance, pipeline permitting, retrofits at Refineries, etc. There’s a sea change a coming, I assure you.

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